PortandTerminal.com, March 12, 2020
Up to 150 million Americans are expected to contract the coronavirus, congressional doctor says. Let’s look at what that implies in terms of deaths.
WASHINGTON – NBC is reporting that Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court, said he expects somewhere between 70 million to 150 million people in the U.S. will become infected with COVID-19.
Monahan made the comments during a closed-door meeting Tuesday that included Senate administrative office staff and personnel from both parties, but no senators, according to NBC News.
As unbelievable as the numbers sound – 70 million to 150 million – they are well within line of what other major world leaders are only just now telling their people to brace themselves for.
Is Dr. Monahan’s projection in line with what others are forecasting?
Dr. Monahan’s projection in percentage terms implies that between 21% to upwards of 46% of Americans will contract coronavirus.
Yesterday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Germany’s Health Minister Jens Spahn warned their country that up to 70% of Germany could become infected.
America’s neighbor to the north, Canada, is also using 70% infections as the upper limit on what to expect.
Canadian Health Minister Patty Hajdu said COVID-19 could ultimately infect between 30% and 70% of Canadians.
EDITOR’S NOTE: AP IS REPORTING NOW (02:00 PM AST) THAT CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU IS SELF-ISOLATING AFTER HIS WIFE SOPHIE DEVELOPED A FEVER AND IS BEING TESTED FOR CORONAVIRUS.
Based upon what political leaders and top medical people of first world countries are saying, Dr. Monahan’s projection that between 21% to upwards of 46% of Americans will contract coronavirus doesn’t come out of left-field.
So let’s assume that Dr. Monahan’s forecast is correct and look at two scenarios. 1) 70 million Americans get the virus 2) 150 million get the virus.
How many people who get sick will die?
In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died.
Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 and again on February 10. Other estimates have placed the death rate at 3%.
We’ll look at all 3 death rate scenarios; 2%, 3% and 3.4%
So now there are a few here variables we need to work with to get a range of the horror that we may be facing. What percentage of Americans will contract the virus? What is the actual death rate for those who do?
In the chart below we look at a total of 6 scenarios based upon the forecasts we have summarized in this article thus far.
The “best-case” outcome above is that “only” 70 million Americans contract the virus, and the fatality rate for those who do is 2%. That leaves 1.4 million people dead.
The worst-case scenario is that 150 million Americans contract the virus, and the WHO is correct, 3.4% perish from it. That leaves 5.1 million dead.
The numbers are too horrific to contemplate. But we must. And we must take every measure now to ensure the least worse-case outcome possible.
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